9 June 2026 by Pascalinah Kabi

As excitement builds among football fans around the world ahead of the FIFA World Cup on 11 June 2026 in North America, a new climate change analysis suggests supporters may witness a different kind of tournament, where players could tire faster due to rising heat.

The analysis, done by Climate Central, shows that climate change is increasing the chances of temperatures rising above 28°C (82.4°F)—a level linked to reduced player performance. Out of 104 scheduled matches, 97 are now more likely to be played in these heat conditions, raising concerns that players could tire faster and struggle to maintain intensity throughout games.

“Every soccer fan knows there’s strong national pride intertwined with earning the World Cup. That brings pressure for players to perform their best and bring home a trophy,” reads the report.

It added: “But planet-warming carbon pollution brings additional challenges for the qualifiers. During the 2026 World Cup, we’ll likely see the real-time consequences of a warming world on this sport — heat that puts the health and performance of players at risk.”

Climate Central indicates that nearly half of the matches (49) have at least a 50 percent likelihood of experiencing heat that can impair performance. In 26 of those matches, climate change increases the likelihood by at least 10 percentage points.  

The analysis was published on 3 June 2026, just eight days before the start of the FIFA World Cup on 11 June 2026. The tournament will run from 11 June to 19 July 2026 and will feature a record 48 teams competing for football’s ultimate prize across 16 cities in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. 

Heat affects player performance, match strategy

Climate Central indicates that research suggests that temperatures above 28°C (82.4°F) can affect soccer players’ performance — especially how fast, far, or frequently they run during a match. This can influence a team’s overall match strategy and style of play.

Ultimately, Climate Central says hotter temperatures could make it more difficult for players to reach peak performance during matches. Teams that rely on high-intensity, fast-paced styles of play—especially those built on speed and repeated sprinting—could be at a disadvantage.

Among the 2026 World Cup sides that fit this profile is Spain, known for its aggressive pressing and quick recovery of the ball. Others include France, Senegal, Japan, and Morocco, a team that often uses explosive sprints to transition rapidly from deep defence into dangerous counter-attacks.

Climate change boosts odds of performance-impairing heat

Climate Central says it used historical data to analyse the likelihood that daily temperatures will exceed the performance-impairing threshold (28°C or 82.4°F) during the 104 World Cup matches. It says it compared the odds in both its current carbon-polluted world and a world without carbon pollution to understand the influence of climate change on the likelihood of performance-impairing heat. This is what it discovered:

• Warming caused by climate change is boosting the odds of performance-impairing heat during most scheduled World Cup matches (97 of 104), by about eight percentage points on average.
• Nearly half of the World Cup matches (49) have at least a 50 percent likelihood of experiencing heat that can impair performance. In 26 of those matches, climate change is increasing the likelihood by at least 10 percentage points.
• Among all matches, climate change boosts the odds of performance-impairing heat most during the June 26 match in Guadalajara, between Uruguay and Spain. The 70 percent chance of such heat during this match is 37 percentage points higher due to climate change.
• Climate Central does not yet know which two teams will make it to the final match, scheduled for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, called New York New Jersey Stadium by FIFA. But it knows that whichever teams advance will face a 47 percent likelihood of performance-impairing heat — odds that are about 17 percentage points higher because of climate change.

Adapting the sport to a warming world

Climate Central says extremely hot June-July days are on the rise at all but two of the 2026 World Cup stadiums, according to another recent Climate Central analysis.

It notes that extreme heat can affect more than performance — it can pose a serious health risk, especially when combined with high humidity.

To keep players, fans, and staff safe, World Cup organisers are adapting to the rising heat risks with more evening matches in hotter cities and mandatory hydration breaks at all 104 matches. It indicates that matches may be postponed if the web-bulb globe temperature (a measurement of humid heat) hits 32°C (89.6°F) to minimise risks of heat stress.

But most stadiums are open-air, leaving players and millions of fans exposed to peak summer heat. Climate Central indicates that only three stadiums are fully climate-controlled (Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston).